Possible scenario
Dembo Upset Win
32% Chance
Dembo converts the 42%-37% polling lead into a real upset in a Trump +15 Kentucky district, helped by an open-seat dynamic and Republican division after Andy Barr's Senate move. Alvarado's ties to the state GOP and national Republicans are not enough to fully reunify conservative voters.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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