Possible scenario
Alvarado Narrow Hold
36% Chance
Alvarado recovers enough Republican consolidation to hold a district that still leans strongly toward Donald Trump. The early Dembo lead narrows as undecided conservatives return home and national GOP groups define the race around federal issues.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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