Possible scenario
Order Holds Locally
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the federal judge's order remains focused on the Bronx man, blocking deportation and sharply limiting transfers while the court reviews medical, custody, and due-process issues. ICE continues broader operations under the 3,000 daily arrest goal, but this individual case stays under judicial supervision.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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