Possible scenario
Red Sea Disruption Deepens
28% Chance
Houthi control of Red Sea coastal positions creates a credible threat to shipping through Bab el-Mandeb and nearby oil routes. The most likely market channel is higher crude, higher freight rates, and modest risk-off pressure across global equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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