Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and regional mediators push both sides toward a pause after civilian casualties in Taiz and Saudi concerns about oil-route security. A full peace deal remains unlikely, but a temporary de-escalation is plausible if both sides want to consolidate gains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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