Possible scenario
Escalation Stays Bilateral
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia intensifies air operations around Taiz and the Red Sea coast while the Houthis continue missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory. The conflict widens tactically, but the United States, Iran, and Gulf states avoid direct entry.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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