From todayDispute Over Nuclear Agenda Puts Potential Trump-Xi-Putin Summit in Doubt

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  40%

  +0.3%

  Summit Survives Narrowly

  Washington, Beijing and Moscow preserve the Nov 18-19 summit by moving the most contentious denuclearization language into a side process. This is the most likely outcome because all three leaders have incentives to claim diplomatic relevance without accepting binding nuclear concessions before New START expires.

  Industrials +0.5% · Technology +0.3%

• 

  30%

  −0.2%

  Summit Delayed

  The parties postpone the meeting rather than cancel it, citing unresolved wording on denuclearization, test-ban compliance and the scope of any New START successor. This allows Trump, Xi and Putin to avoid a failed summit while keeping negotiators engaged.

  Technology −0.2% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −0.7%

  Summit Collapses

  The proposed summit is canceled after the United States insists on a denuclearization framework that China and Russia reject. The breakdown increases uncertainty over the post-New START environment, but it does not by itself create an immediate military crisis.

  Industrials +1.2% · Technology −1.0% · Finance −0.8%

• 

  10%

  +0.9%

  Surprise Breakthrough

  Negotiators resolve the agenda dispute quickly and the three leaders endorse a more ambitious strategic-stability package than markets expect. The probability is lower because China remains resistant to trilateral caps and Russia has leverage from New START’s expiration.

  Technology +1.1% · Finance +0.9% · Industrials +0.7%