Possible scenario
Security Fallout Escalates
20% Chance
The disclosure damages Israeli credibility on Iran strike planning and creates a short-term security opening for Tehran and allied militias. This is less likely than a domestic legal track, but it carries the largest immediate cross-market impact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.