Possible scenario
Inquiry, Coalition Survives
40% Chance
The most likely path is a serious but contained institutional probe into whether Netanyahu or his aides altered intelligence records around the Iran strike planning. Coalition partners criticize the handling but avoid collapsing the government because elections would be risky for the right-wing bloc.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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