Possible scenario
Coalition Crisis Deepens
25% Chance
The intelligence-record scandal becomes a governing crisis as coalition partners conclude Netanyahu has become a liability. The immediate question shifts from intelligence procedure to whether Likud can preserve power without a rapid election.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.