Possible scenario
Houthi Counteroffensive Expands
20% Chance
The Houthis exploit the stalled Saudi-backed offensive and shift from encirclement around Taiz to pressure on Dhubab and nearby coastal positions. This is less likely than stalemate but carries the largest short-term market risk because of proximity to Bab al-Mandeb.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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