Possible scenario
Entrenched Taiz Stalemate
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a grinding stalemate: Saudi-backed forces hold Dhubab but cannot push toward Mokha or reopen the Taiz-Aden road. Houthi units consolidate their encirclement of Taiz-aligned forces, while coalition airstrikes prevent a rapid Houthi overrun.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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