Possible scenario
Russian Escalation
22% Chance
Moscow increases military pressure on Kyiv to demonstrate that its warnings carry costs. The most likely form is additional infrastructure attacks, but miscalculation around diplomatic compounds would sharply escalate the crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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