Possible scenario
Orderly Embassy Drawdown
27% Chance
Western governments conclude that the bridge strikes and Russian order create unacceptable short-term security risk. Most missions avoid a full rupture by maintaining remote operations from western Ukraine or Poland while leaving small liaison teams in Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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