Possible scenario
Defiance Holds
38% Chance
EU ambassadors and senior mission staff remain in Kyiv despite Moscow's order, calculating that leaving would reward coercion and weaken support for Ukraine. Security procedures tighten around compounds, while Russia continues pressure without directly targeting embassies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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