Possible scenario
Security Crackdown Escalates
25% Chance
Further clashes push authorities toward a firmer law-and-order response around the summit venue and central Bangkok. This would revive memories of Thailand's military-backed political interventions and create a modest risk-off reaction focused on Thai tourism, banks, and local assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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