Possible scenario
Reformist Concessions
20% Chance
The government uses the clash to open a limited dialogue with pro-democracy groups and reduce pressure during the global meetings. This would be a politically cautious but market-friendly outcome, lowering the odds of renewed street violence while keeping Thailand's debt and inflation discussions on track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Finance +0.7%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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