Possible scenario
Controlled De-escalation
45% Chance
Thai authorities contain the unrest around the IMF and World Bank meetings without major disruption to the program. The government has strong incentives to preserve Thailand's image as host while avoiding another confrontation with pro-democracy groups.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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