Possible scenario
Unrest And Crackdown
30% Chance
A dire public warning from the security chief may signal that Tehran expects economic anger to move from online criticism to street mobilization. The IRGC and Basij are likely to prioritize regime security, especially after the March 2026 strikes and the renewed sanctions squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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