Managed Economic Containment

The most likely path is that Iran treats the warning as preparation for tougher emergency controls rather than a policy reversal. The Central Bank of Iran, Majles, and the Supreme National Security Council expand subsidies, rationing, and currency restrictions to slow panic while preserving the regime's core security spending.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.