Possible scenario
Diplomatic Relief Track
20% Chance
Economic distress gives Tehran an incentive to test limited de-escalation with Washington, the E3, and the IAEA without formally abandoning its deterrent posture. This route is plausible because the rial collapse threatens domestic stability, but ideological resistance and recent military strikes limit the chance of a broad deal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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