Possible scenario
Pro-Market Runoff Momentum
42% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts his first-round lead into clear runoff momentum, helped by anti-Lula consolidation and investor hopes for privatization, deregulation and fiscal restraint. Brazilian assets extend gains, especially banks, utilities and state-linked companies seen as beneficiaries of a more market-friendly administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Utilities +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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