Possible scenario
Institutional Dispute Escalates
19% Chance
The election lead becomes entangled with court scrutiny, protests and disputes over Jair Bolsonaro’s role from prison. The market reaction turns defensive as investors price a higher risk of post-election instability rather than a clean policy transition.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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