Possible scenario
Lula Runoff Rebound
27% Chance
Lula remains competitive by consolidating anti-Bolsonaro voters and warning against institutional confrontation. Markets partially reverse the initial Bolsonaro-linked rally as investors reassess the probability of policy continuity and renewed fiscal pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.