Possible scenario
Jackson Narrowly Wins
42% Chance
Troy Jackson converts the current polling edge and the bribery-story fallout into a narrow win over Susan Collins. Maine's partisan lean and Collins' long-standing crossover appeal keep the race close, but Jackson benefits from a nationalized Democratic turnout push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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