Possible scenario
Contested Finish
16% Chance
The 50%-47% poll understates uncertainty, and the final result lands within recount territory. Maine becomes a late focal point for national parties if Senate control remains unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.