Possible scenario
Collins Recovers
32% Chance
Susan Collins uses incumbency, ticket-splitting, and late-deciding independents to overcome the polling deficit. Her brand with moderate Maine voters remains damaged but sufficient to survive a difficult cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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