Possible scenario
Limited Curbs Adopted
35% Chance
The most likely compromise is a partial restriction rather than a full cutoff, reflecting President Trump's public support for Ukrainian long-range strikes and the CIA director's objections to a rollback. The White House may limit support for the most sensitive targeting decisions while preserving battlefield intelligence and defensive warning data.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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