Possible scenario
CIA View Prevails
30% Chance
The CIA director, Pentagon officials, and congressional Ukraine hawks persuade Trump that cutting intelligence would weaken Kyiv without improving escalation control. The White House may issue new guidance, but practical intelligence flows continue largely unchanged.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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