Possible scenario
Conditional Compromise
20% Chance
The White House uses the intelligence debate to extract tighter Ukrainian commitments on target selection and greater European participation. This outcome preserves most U.S. support while adding political conditions that could periodically disrupt operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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