Possible scenario
Houthi Tempo Rises
23% Chance
Houthi forces try to exploit the perceived Saudi interceptor shortage with more missile and drone launches. Even if most attacks are intercepted, the repeated pressure raises the probability of a damaging strike on energy or port infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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