Possible scenario
Pakistani Stopgap Arrives
40% Chance
Pakistan provides a limited but usable air-defense package under the Mecca Defense Pact, likely including crews, radar support, and shorter-range interceptors rather than large numbers of Patriot-class missiles. This is the most likely outcome because Riyadh needs immediate depth while Washington's Patriot pipeline remains constrained by Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- RTX+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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