Possible scenario
Rwanda Cooperation Strains
15% Chance
The case may become a test of legal cooperation between UK authorities and Rwanda, especially because witness evidence and archival material are likely to sit partly in Rwanda. Cooperation is probable, but extradition, witness security, and evidence-integrity issues could create diplomatic friction.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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