Possible scenario
West Bank Uprising
27% Chance
The Al Aqsa storming becomes a mobilizing event across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, with mass protests, shootings, closures, and Israeli raids. This outcome is plausible because repeated incursions during a Jewish holiday create a high-salience religious trigger and follow weeks of escalating settler activity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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