Possible scenario
Contained Security Crackdown
38% Chance
Israeli police impose tight access controls around Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount and the Old City, limiting Palestinian entry while allowing the government to claim order has been restored. This is the most likely path because Israel has strong security capacity in Jerusalem and the government will try to avoid a broader confrontation during Sukkot.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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