Possible scenario
Regional Militant Escalation
22% Chance
Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or Iran-aligned groups use the Al Aqsa incident to justify attacks on Israel from Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. This is less likely than domestic unrest but cannot be dismissed because Jerusalem holy-site crises have repeatedly created regional escalation incentives.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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