Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Harassment
45% Chance
Houthi forces continue skiff, drone, and missile harassment near Yemen, but the attacks remain mostly ineffective and do not close the Bab el-Mandeb. Shipping firms increase caution, while naval escorts prevent a broader market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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