Possible scenario
Coalition Strikes Expand
25% Chance
Washington and London respond with additional strikes against launch sites, coastal radars, and command facilities. The goal is to restore deterrence without widening the conflict beyond Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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