Possible scenario
Tanker Damage Escalation
15% Chance
A follow-on attack causes confirmed damage to an LNG carrier or nearby tanker, prompting emergency routing changes. The event raises fears of a temporary Bab el-Mandeb closure and produces the largest near-term market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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