Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
21% Chance
Republicans overcome poor national indicators by outperforming in lower-turnout districts and benefiting from candidate-quality gaps. The party keeps a narrow House majority, preserving more of Trump’s legislative leverage into 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Finance +0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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