Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic House
48% Chance
Democrats convert their small generic-ballot lead in toss-up districts into a narrow House majority. This is the most likely path given Trump’s 34% approval, Cook Political Report shifts toward Democrats, and the historical midterm penalty for the president’s party.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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