Possible scenario
Decisive Democratic Wave
24% Chance
The polling in toss-up districts understates Democratic momentum, and late undecideds break against Republicans. Democrats build a majority large enough to control committees comfortably, intensify oversight of the Trump administration, and block most GOP House priorities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Finance -0.8%
- Healthcare -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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