Possible scenario
Supply Response Caps
25% Chance
A near-term supply response could prevent a clean break above $100. Additional SPR loan details, faster Gulf of Mexico restarts after Isaias, or softer refinery runs would cool the immediate squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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