Possible scenario
Geopolitical Premium Widens
20% Chance
Iran's recent threat to Indian Ocean shipping remains a live tail risk and could compound the inventory-driven rally. Even without a confirmed supply loss, higher war-risk insurance and rerouting concerns would support Brent and lift volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.