Possible scenario
Crude Rally Extends
43% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a continuation of the oil rally as traders extrapolate the 13.4 million barrel petroleum draw, OPEC+ restraint, and lingering Gulf disruption. With WTI already near $98, momentum buying and refinery demand could push prices briefly toward $100.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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