Possible scenario
Managed De-escalation
20% Chance
After several weeks of rising tension, the United Nations Command, Washington, and Beijing press both Koreas to lower the temperature. Seoul continues to defend its right to operate in the DMZ but slows the tempo or narrows the patrol areas.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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