Possible scenario
Controlled DMZ Pressure
45% Chance
South Korea proceeds with additional DMZ operations while keeping them limited, publicized, and coordinated with U.S. Forces Korea and the United Nations Command. North Korea responds with rhetoric, troop movements, or missile signaling but avoids a direct strike.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.