Possible scenario
Localized Border Incident
25% Chance
The most likely escalation path is a contained tactical incident near the DMZ, such as warning fire, a drone crossing, or another mine-related injury. Both Koreas keep forces on alert, but Washington and Seoul work to prevent a wider exchange.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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