Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN special envoy, and possibly Iran push for restraint after both sides demonstrate escalation capacity. Saudi Arabia has incentives to protect oil infrastructure and Vision 2030 investment sentiment, while the Houthis may seek leverage rather than a sustained confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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