Contained Missile Exchange

The most likely path is a limited retaliation cycle in which the Houthi missile claim is confirmed but produces little or no strategic damage. Riyadh responds with defensive alerts and selective strikes rather than a broader ground or air campaign, while Oman and the UN press both sides to avoid a full collapse of back-channel contacts.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.